Hearing index for decision making

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Question

How to measure the capability of a voting system, a decision making process, or a single decision to hear what the citizens have to say?

  • The method should be able to compare different systems, processes, and decisions to each other and reveal their preference from a democratic point of view.

Answer

The method should answer this question:

What fraction of citizens had such a contribution that it participated in promoting the decision that was actually made? In other words: what is the maximum fraction of participants that theoretically could have stayed home (rather than contributed to the decision making process) and that would not have had any impact on the outcome?

The same question can also be asked hypothetically for a future decision, based on probabilities of different outcomes, given a particular decision process.

Let us call this measure the hearing index.

Rationale

If we compare different approaches in the US Presidential election in 2016, we can see that the hearing index was 32.2 %. This is a very low number. For example, in a two-phase presidential election, such as in Finland, hearing index may go below 50 % only if there is a substantial amount of empty votes. In the US, a popular vote would have had a hearing index of 47.8 % (and Hillary Clinton would have won).

In practice, the low hearing index means that any and all citizens in 20 states (including California and Washiington D.C.) could have stayed home on the election day, and it would not have had any impact whatsoever on the election result. Of course, it was not clear in advance, which states will fall into that category.

A ranking vote where voters rank the candidates would have had hearing index of 47.8 - 52.4 % depending on how the votes of the minor candidates would have distributed among the two major candidates.

Interestingly, the hearing index can also be used to evaluate decision processes after the election. If the elected president does what they have promised, the hearing index can be thought as high as in the election, even if the citizens have no say during the decision making. However, if the president does something that the citizens did not anticipate, the hearing index is 0.

The strentgh of the hearing index is that it answers an intuitive question, and its practical implications in a particular situation can be easily described. It can also be easily measured from different election or decision situations.

US Presidential election 2016

Results of the US Presidential election 2016. Data was taken from Wikipedia on 14th Nov 2016 and it is not final. See en:United States presidential election, 2016.
State or district Electoral method Hillary Clinton Democratic Donald Trump Republican Gary Johnson Libertarian Jill Stein Green Evan McMullin Independent Total votes Total electorates Votes that affect electorates Votes that affect president
Votes Electoral votes Votes Electoral votes Votes Votes Votes
Whole country
59940757 (47.77 %) 232 59708917 (47.59 %) 306 4155551 (3.31 %) 1221847 (0.97 %) 447285 (0.36 %) 125474357 538 68681810 (54.7 %) 40398862 (32.2 %)
States and districts
Alabama AL WTA 718084 1306925 9 43869 9287 2078165 9 1306925 1306925
Alaska AK WTA 93007 130415 3 14593 4445 242460 3 130415 130415
Arizona AZ WTA 888374 972900 11 75082 23697 1960053 11 972900 972900
Arkansas AR WTA 378632 681765 6 29593 9406 13180 1112576 6 681765 681765
California CA WTA 5488261 55 2969532 308392 152539 8918724 55 5488261 0
Colorado CO WTA 1126384 9 1075770 129128 29299 24679 2385260 9 1126384 0
Connecticut CT WTA 823360 7 637919 45999 21539 1481 1530298 7 823360 0
Delaware DE WTA 235581 3 185103 14751 5865 441300 3 235581 0
D.C. DC WTA 260223 3 11553 4501 3995 280272 3 260223 0
Florida FL WTA 4487657 4607146 29 206007 64060 9364870 29 4607146 4607146
Georgia GA WTA 1856509 2078064 16 123641 4058214 16 2078064 2078064
Hawaii HI WTA 266827 4 128815 14854 12727 423223 4 266827 0
Idaho ID WTA 190971 412525 4 28256 8524 46702 686978 4 412525 412525
Illinois IL WTA 2982415 20 2121573 204491 74026 5382505 20 2982415 0
Indiana IN WTA 1024180 1544609 11 133856 1829 2704474 11 1544609 1544609
Iowa IA WTA 650780 798923 6 57322 11406 12264 1530695 6 798923 798923
Kansas KS WTA 414572 656470 6 53648 22717 1147407 6 656470 656470
Kentucky KY WTA 628834 1202942 8 53749 13913 22780 1922218 8 1202942 1202942
Louisiana LA WTA 779535 1178004 8 37950 14018 8546 2018053 8 1178004 1178004
Maine ME CD 352156 3 332418 1 37764 13995 736333 4 736333 332418
Maryland MD WTA 1502820 10 878615 71107 32019 2484561 10 1502820 0
Massachusetts MA WTA 1967667 11 1084400 136784 46931 3235782 11 1967667 0
Michigan MI WTA 2264807 2277914 16 173023 51420 4767164 16 2277914 2277914
Minnesota MN WTA 1364067 10 1321120 112944 36921 53028 2888080 10 1364067 0
Mississippi MS WTA 462127 678284 6 13789 3590 1157790 6 678284 678284
Missouri MO WTA 1054889 1585753 10 96404 25086 1372 2763504 10 1585753 1585753
Montana MT WTA 174281 273879 3 27264 7662 483086 3 273879 273879
Nebraska NE CD 273181 485326 5 37615 8335 804457 5 485326 485326
Nevada NV WTA 537753 6 511319 37299 1086371 6 537753 0
New Hampshire NH WTA 348497 4 345810 30530 6377 731214 4 348497 0
New Jersey NJ WTA 1967444 14 1509688 68695 35305 3581132 14 1967444 0
New Mexico NM WTA 380923 5 316134 73699 9740 5722 786218 5 380923 0
New York NY WTA 4145376 29 2638135 161236 100033 7044780 29 4145376 0
North Carolina NC WTA 2162822 2339830 15 127794 590 4631036 15 2339830 2339830
North Dakota ND WTA 93526 216133 3 21351 3769 334779 3 216133 216133
Ohio OH WTA 2320596 2776683 18 168599 44278 5310156 18 2776683 2776683
Oklahoma OK WTA 419788 947934 7 83334 1451056 7 947934 947934
Oregon OR WTA 949319 7 751438 86306 46510 1833573 7 949319 0
Pennsylvania PA WTA 2817409 2890633 20 142653 48588 5899283 20 2890633 2890633
Rhode Island RI WTA 227062 4 166454 14643 5763 413922 4 227062 0
South Carolina SC WTA 850629 1147045 9 48715 12945 20871 2080205 9 1147045 1147045
South Dakota SD WTA 117442 227701 3 20845 365988 3 227701 227701
Tennessee TN WTA 868853 1519926 11 70084 15952 2474815 11 1519926 1519926
Texas TX WTA 3867816 4681590 38 282524 71307 20227 8923464 38 4681590 4681590
Utah UT WTA 222858 375006 6 29921 5484 163573 796842 6 375006 375006
Vermont VT WTA 178082 3 95114 10043 6727 289966 3 178082 0
Virginia VA WTA 1916148 13 1729932 116600 27248 52860 3842788 13 1916148 0
Washington WA WTA 1210824 12 831631 131779 30540 2204774 12 1210824 0
West Virginia WV WTA 187519 486304 5 22798 8016 704637 5 486304 486304
Wisconsin WI WTA 1383926 1411432 10 106442 30942 2932742 10 1411432 1411432
Wyoming WY WTA 55964 174383 3 13285 2482 246114 3 174383 174383

Electoral methods:

  • WTA – Winner-takes-all
  • CD – Congressional district

See also