IMAGE
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IMAGE is a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-atmosphere system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of global policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude-longitude) to world regional level, depending on the submodel.[1]
Contents
Result
Regional Scope:
Depending on the submodel the calculations are performed with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5x0.5 degrees latitude-longitude) to world regional level.
Standard Model Specification:
Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean:
The Energy-Industry Model computes the emissions of greenhouse gases in 17 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces.
The Terrestrial Environment Model simulates the changes in global land cover on a grid-scale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere.
The Atmosphere-Ocean Model computes the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting global-mean average temperature and precipitation. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1995, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends:
- regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions,
- terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases,
- concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
- observed climate change, and
- transformation of land cover.[1]
Main Model Results:
See many scenario analyses of IPCC (Nakicenovic et al., 2000), UNEP (GEO-3, 2002) and soon, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.
Time Horizon
Dynamic calculations are performed until 2100.
Required technical infrastructure:
Model runs on PC and Unix; and is written in Fortran.
Data Sources:
The various models need different types of input data. Data come from IEA, FAO, IPCC, World Bank, UN etc.
Model Extensions:
Several impact modules are coupled to IMAGE, like a Global Nutrient Model (van Drecht et al., 2003), the WaterGAP model from the University of Kassel, Germany, and a European Biodiversity Model (EUROMOVE; Bakkenes et al., 2002). [1]
The detailed and interlinked models include:
- Population (Phoenix) and World Economy (WordScan); submodels supply the basic information on economic and demographic developments for 17 socio-economic regions (Canada, USA, Central America, South America, Northern Africa, Western Africa, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, OECD Europe, Eastern Europe, Former USSR, Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, South East Asia, Oceania and Japan).
- The TIMER model (de Vries et al., 2001) calculates regional energy consumption, energy efficiency improvements, fuel substitution, supply and trade of fossil fuels and renewable energy technologies. TIMER also calculates demand for both traditional and modern biofuels, which provides a link to the land-use model. On the basis of energy production and energy use and industrial production, emissions of GHGs, ozone precursors and sulphur are computed on the basis of emission factors from the EDGAR database (Olivier et al., 1999).
- The ecosystem, crop and land-use models dynamically compute land use on the basis of regional consumption, production and trading of food, animal feed, fodder, grass and timber, and local climatic and terrain properties. Emissions from land-use change, natural ecosystems and agricultural production systems, and the exchange of CO2 between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere are computed. The terrestrial models perform its simulations on a grid scale (Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE Team, 2001)
- The atmospheric and ocean models calculate changes in atmospheric composition by employing the emissions and by taking oceanic CO2 uptake and atmospheric chemistry into consideration. Subsequently, changes in climatic properties are computed by resolving the changes in radiative forcing caused by GHGs, aerosols and oceanic heat transport (Eickhout et al., 2004).
- The impact models involve specific models for sea-level rise and land degradation risk and make use of specific features of the ecosystem and crop models to depict impacts on vegetation. The ecosystem models include an algorithm that estimates the carbon cycle consequences of different assumptions on the speed of climate-change induced vegetation migration (van Minnen et al., 2000).[1]
Typical Model Applications:
IMAGE is used to simulate global policy scenarios on a geographically highly disaggregated level with a very detailed modelling of the interacting systems including many relevant impacts. Examples of IMAGE applications are:
- Development of scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions as part of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), responsible for the marker B1 scenario (Nakicenovic et al., 2000) and publication of the complete set of SRES scenarios with addition of land-use (IMAGE Team, 2001).
- Responsible for the global scenarios of UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3, 2002)
- Responsible for the global scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (to be released in 2005).
- Responsible for European land-use scenarios as part of the Eururalis-project (WUR/RIVM, 2004).
- Participation in post-Kyoto analyses of the European Commission (DG Environment, 2003) and the Energy Modeling Forum (Van Vuuren et al., 2004).[1]
See also
More information on IMAGE can be found on:
References
Books describing IMAGE 2.0 and 2.1:
Alcamo, J. (ed), 1994. IMAGE 2.0: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. pp 318.
Alcamo, J., R. Leemans, and E. Kreileman (eds.), 1998. Global Change scenarios of the 21st Century - Results from the IMAGE 2.1 model. Oxford: Pergamon. pp 296.
Products describing IMAGE 2.2:
De Vries, H. J. M., D. P. van Vuuren, M. G. J. den Elzen, and M. A. Janssen, 2001. The TARGETS IMage Energy Regional (TIMER) model. RIVM Report no. 461502024, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Eickhout, B., M.G.J. den Elzen and G.J.J. Kreileman, 2004. The Atmosphere-Ocean System of IMAGE 2.2. RIVM Report no. 481508017, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
IMAGE team. 2001. The IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the SRES scenarios: A comprehensive analysis of emissions, climate change and impacts in the 21st century. RIVM CD-ROM Publication 481508018, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven.
Van Minnen, J.G., R. Leemans, and F. Ihle. 2000. Defining the importance of including transient ecosystem responses to simulate C-cycle dynamics in a global change model. Global Change Biology 6:595-612.
References to work using the IMAGE model (cited before):
Bakkenes, M., J.R.M. Alkemade, F. Ihle, R. Leemans and J.B. Latour, 2002. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology, 8, 390-407.
DG Environment, 2003. Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways in the UNFCCC Process up to 2025. Summary for policymakers and Technical Report. Nakícenovíc, N., J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. de Vries, S. Gaffin, K. Gregory, A. Grübler, T.Y. Jung, T. Kram, E. Emílío la Rovere, L. Michaelis, S. Mori, T. Morita, W. Pepper, H. Pitcher, L. Price, K. Riahi, A. Roehrl, H.-H. Rogner, A. Sankovski, M.E. Schlesinger, P.R. Shukla, S. Smith, R.J. Swart, S. van Rooyen, N. Victor and Z. Dadi, 2000. Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, NY, U.S.A., Melbourne, Australia and Madrid, Spain: Cambridge University Press.
UNEP, 2002. Global Environment Outlook 3, Past, present and future perspectives. London, Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications Ltd.
Van Drecht, G., A.F. Bouwman, J.M. Knoop, A.H.W. Beusen and C.R. Meinardi, 2003. Global modeling of the fate of nitrogen from point and nonpoint sources in soils, groundwater and surface water. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 17(4), doi:10.129/2003GB002060.
Van Vuuren, D.P., B. Eickhout, P.L. Lucas and M.G.J. den Elzen, 2004. Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing - Exploring costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework, accepted by Energy Journal.
WUR and RIVM, 2004. Eururalis 1.0: A scenario study on Europe's Rural Areas to support policy discussion, CD-ROM publication, Wageningen University and National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, the Netherlands.
