TREMOVE

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TREMOVE is an integrated policy assessment model designed to analyse cost-effectiveness of a wide range of technical and non-technical measures aimed at reducing emissions from all transport (passenger and freight, road, rail, water, air) in particular and improving air quality in general. It calculates the welfare costs of these policy measures and the difference in costs for all transport modes between alternative transport scenarios. Besides, the model computes the size and composition of the vehicle stock, the vehicle usage, the emissions and the average speeds in cities, on motorways and on other rural roads. Total transport flows and emissions in each country are allocated to three model domains: one metropolitan area, an aggregate of all other cities and an aggregate of all non-urban areas.

The previous version TREMOVE 1.3a was developed in 1997-98 for the Auto-Oil II programme to support the European policy making process concerning emission standards for vehicles and fuel specifications. It is calibrated to 1995 data for nine European countries and covers the period 1995-2020 (including baseline data for road transport).

The most recent version TREMOVE 2.0 is still under development. The new model covers now explicitly rail, air and shipping in the EU-15 countries, Switzerland, Norway, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. It deals with a larger set of pollutants and covers the period 1995-2020. TREMOVE 2.0 will be calibrated explicitly on other European transport flows generated by Scenes and will take on board the most recent emission computation methodology.[1]

Result

Typical Model Applications:

  • Simulation of the effects of various types of individual or combined transport policy measures on transport flows, on the size and composition of the vehicle stock, vehicle usage and on emissions

Modular structure:

Each country model consists of three interlinked `core' modules:

  • The `transport demand module' describes the transport flows and the users' decision making process
  • The `vehicle stock turnover module' describes how changes in demand for transport across modes or changes in price structure influence the number, the age and the type of vehicles in the stock
  • The `fuel consumption and emissions module' calculates fuels consumption and emissions, based on the structure of the vehicle stock, the number of kilometres driven by each vehicle type and the driving conditions.

Besides, TREMOVE 2.0 will include a lifecycle emissions and a welfare cost module.[1]

Sectoral coverage

Transport sector (disaggregated into many interrelated transport markets which, in turn, correspond to the use of a given transport mode at a particular point of time)

  • Passenger transport modes: car, motorcycle, bus, tram, metro, train, air, and ferries
  • Freight transport modes: trucks, rail, inland waterways, maritime vessels

Vehicle classes are further detailed into vehicle sizes, fuel types and technologies.

Consumption categories:

Passenger and freight transport demand is differentiated by trip purpose and by category of freight

  • Passenger transport: business, commuting and non-working trips
  • Freight transport: bulk goods, unitised freight and cargo freight[1]

Behavioural assumptions:

For non-work and commuting passenger trips (private transport), transport demand and modal choices will be determined by generalised prices (including the producer price, a tax or subsidy, and a transportation time cost) for each mode, income levels and observed consumer preferences. For freight transport and business trips (business transport), total demand and modal choice are set by generalised prices, desired production quantities and substitution possibilities between production factors. The decision process of both firms and households are modelled using CES utility and cost functions.

Changes in user costs for freight transport will lead to changes in load factors of trucks or a shift across truck categories or to other transport modes. Ultimately, the quantity of freight transport will be reduced through a reorganisation of production operations. For passenger transport, there can also be an overall reduction in passenger-kilometres as some measures might discourage people from travelling.

Within each country domain or regional module, passenger and freight transport is analysed simultaneously. Both use the same road transport network and influence each other through congestion.

Demand and supply in each transport market is balanced by the generalised price of transport.

Changes in demand for transport across modes or changes in price structure influence the number, the age and the type of vehicles in the stock. For this purpose both vehicle sales and vehicle scrappage decisions will be modelled for almost all modes by behavioural functions.[1]

Energy-environment module:

In the `fuel consumption and emissions module' the vehicle stock is broken down into vehicle categories and the age, ranging from zero to fifteen years old. The age distribution is transformed into a technology distribution, showing the technology mix of a vehicle class for each consecutive period. Technology-related emission factors are (still) provided by the COPERT II methodology that was developed in the framework of the European Agency's CORINAIR project (as soon as available by the ARTEMIS project). The emissions included are CO2, CO, NOx, VOC, PM, SO2, Pb, N2O, CH4, NMVOC, VOC spec., PM size, NH3, H2S, NO2, HM.

Dynamic structure:

The time horizon ranges from 1995 through 2020 with annual intervals. Every year is linked to the previous year via the stock of transport means and the available infrastructure.[1]

Linkage between regions and countries:

TREMOVE consists of separate, but basically identical, country models without explicit links between countries, i.e. policy measures cannot include a displacement of transport demand from one country to another. The models do, however, take into account international trade and transport, and changes therein, in the base case. For each international trip, the model records the kilometres driven by region in all regions travelled.

Within each country the three domains (metropolitan area, aggregated other urban areas, non-urban areas) are modelled separately without explicit links between them. Natural migration patterns between cities or between cities and rural areas, however, are taken into account in the base case, but are assumed to be constant. In order to model maritime transport (freight vessels and ferries), the European sea area is divided in several modelled maritime areas (North Sea, the Irish Sea, the English Channel, the Baltic Sea, the Black sea, the NE Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the remainder of the EMEP area).[1]

Main model results

[Presented either as percentage or percentage point deviations from baseline]

Economic results:

  • Costs of policy measures (i.e. total cost to society and costs by category: cost to transport users, transport producers, governments)
  • Annual transport flows for on-road passenger and freight transport, rail passenger and freight transport, and in-land waterway and maritime freight transport, allocated to three model domains (metropolitan area, other urban areas, non-urban areas), or to maritime regions respectively.
  • Size and composition of the vehicle stock and vehicle usage for the road transport modes

Environment-related results:

  • Fuel consumption and atmospheric emissions by mode and model region.[1]

Required technical infrastructure:

GAMS software (GAMS Base Module and Solver GAMS/MINOS)

Structure of Input Data:

Exogenous variables and parameters:

  • Pre-determined: macroeconomic variables (e.g. real GDP, inflation, population, discount rate)
  • Variables that can be adjusted for the purpose of policy analysis (e.g. vehicle costs, fuel prices, tax rates, infrastructure levels, emission performance of vehicle technologies etc.)
  • Coefficients of the behavioural (utility and cost) functions, e.g. substitution elasticities between various modes or the value of time (taken from economic literature)[1]

Base year data and baseline assumptions:

  • The development of the TREMOVE 2.0 baseline involves the construction of a coherent reference case for transport demand, vehicle stocks and emissions for all countries and model regions considered for every year from the base year 1995 until 2020. Baseline transport forecasts will be derived from the SCENS model.

Calibration:

  • The calibration method is used in order to determine level parameters of congestion functions and demand functions for each transport mode that, in the base case, exactly reproduce the pre-determined data set, given the assumptions made with respect to prices, income levels and transport demand[1]

Model Extensions:

Links to other Models, Projects, Networks:

CAFE, ECCP: TREMOVE 2.0 will produce a transport baseline for CAFE and ECCP

SCENES: will provide the data for the baseline transport volumes (base year 1995, forecast year 2020)

ARTEMIS& PARTICULATES: will be the main source for emission factors for all modes and pollutants

TRENDS: will be a source of fleet data and emission baseline data

PRIMES: will provide information regarding fuel and energy prices

RAINS: TREMOVE 2.0 will provide transport sector emissions data for the RAINS model

Regional Scope:

  • TREMOVE 1.3a includes 9 European countries and 10 cities: Finland (Helsinki), France (Lyons), Germany (Berlin, Cologne), Greece (Athens), Ireland (Dublin), Italy (Milan), the Netherlands (Utrecht), Spain (Madrid), the United Kingdom (London).
  • TREMOVE 2.0 covers 21 countries: the EU-15 region, Switzerland, Norway, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia.[1]

See also

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 JRC European Commission, IA Tools, supporting impact assessement in the European Commission [1]

Van Herbruggen, B. (2002), In Depth Description of the TREMOVE Model, Transport & Mobility Leuven

De Ceuster, G. (ed.) et al. (2004), The TREMOVE 2.0 Baseline, Transport & Mobility Leuven, Draft 5 March 2004

De Ceuster, G. (ed.) et al. (2004), The TREMOVE 2.0 Model Description, Transport & Mobility Leuven, Draft 5 March 2004

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