United States presidential election, 2016

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Question

Was there fraud in the US presidential elections in 2016? Specifically, was there fraud in three states that went to Trump: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?

The question was raised by the journal New York on 22nd Nov 2016. Gabriel Sherman: Experts Urge Clinton Campaign to Challenge Election Results in 3 Swing States. [1] Yle

Rationale

Filing a recount

According to one of the activists, the deadline in Wisconsin to file for a recount is Friday (25th Nov); in Pennsylvania, it’s Monday (28th Nov); and Michigan is next Wednesday (30th Nov).

For a recount, it would be important to check the dates. In addition, could some other candidate file a recount, even if they have zero chance to get elected? Also, it would seem plausible that any citizen could complain if there is evidence of a fraud. These should be checked.

Data

Overall state results

Data from Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

	Michigan		Wisconsin		Pennsylvania
Candidate	Votes	Percent	Votes	Percent	Votes	Percent
Donald Trump (GOP)	2279805	47.60%	1409467	47.90%	2912941	48.80%
Hillary Clinton (Dem)	2268193	47.30%	1382210	46.90%	2844705	47.60%
Gary Johnson (Lib)	173057	3.60%	106442	3.60%	142653	2.40%
Jill Stein (Grn)	50700	1.10%	30980	1.10%	48912	0.80%
Other	19162	0.40%	15521	0.50%	20896	0.40%
	100% of precincts reporting (4,830 of 4,830)		100% of precincts reporting (3,620 of 3,620)		99.8% of precincts reporting (9,136 of 9,158)

100% of precincts reporting (4,830 of 4,830)

Counties and results in Wisconsin, with links to some precinct-level results.[2]

Show details

County-level results from three swing states(fraction, #) Obs State County Calculated Clinton Trump Johnson Stein 2016 Margin Population 1 Wisconsin Milwaukee 100% in 0.664 0.29 0.031 0.01 D +37 953401 2 Wisconsin Dane 100% in 0.714 0.234 0.035 0.014 D +48 502984 3 Wisconsin Waukesha 100% in 0.335 0.616 0.038 0.007 R +28 392511 4 Wisconsin Brown 100% in 0.419 0.527 0.039 0.011 R +11 252698 5 Wisconsin Racine 100% in 0.454 0.498 0.035 0.009 R +4 195039 6 Wisconsin Outagamie 100% in 0.401 0.542 0.041 0.01 R +14 179139 7 Wisconsin Winnebago 100% in 0.431 0.506 0.044 0.012 R +7 168413 8 Wisconsin Kenosha 100% in 0.472 0.475 0.036 0.011 R +0 167268 9 Wisconsin Rock 100% in 0.524 0.42 0.038 0.012 D +10 160465 10 Wisconsin Marathon 100% in 0.385 0.567 0.034 0.009 R +18 134886 11 Wisconsin Washington 100% in 0.274 0.678 0.036 0.007 R +40 132526 12 Wisconsin La Crosse 100% in 0.516 0.42 0.043 0.015 D +10 116470 13 Wisconsin Sheboygan 100% in 0.388 0.555 0.04 0.009 R +17 115168 14 Wisconsin Walworth 100% in 0.37 0.57 0.042 0.012 R +20 102920 15 Wisconsin Fond Du Lac 100% in 0.34 0.608 0.037 0.009 R +27 101709 16 Wisconsin Eau Claire 100% in 0.504 0.431 0.046 0.013 D +7 100607 17 Wisconsin Dodge 100% in 0.326 0.622 0.036 0.008 R +30 88589 18 Wisconsin Ozaukee 100% in 0.378 0.571 0.04 0.007 R +19 86930 19 Wisconsin St. Croix 100% in 0.374 0.558 0.05 0.011 R +18 85442 20 Wisconsin Jefferson 100% in 0.391 0.553 0.039 0.011 R +16 84201 21 Wisconsin Manitowoc 100% in 0.364 0.581 0.039 0.009 R +22 80805 22 Wisconsin Wood 100% in 0.377 0.57 0.036 0.01 R +19 74261 23 Wisconsin Portage 100% in 0.486 0.454 0.039 0.015 D +3 70337 24 Wisconsin Chippewa 100% in 0.377 0.569 0.038 0.008 R +19 63051 25 Wisconsin Sauk 100% in 0.474 0.469 0.036 0.014 D +1 62681 26 Wisconsin Columbia 100% in 0.462 0.483 0.037 0.012 R +2 56659 27 Wisconsin Waupaca 100% in 0.326 0.628 0.031 0.009 R +30 52212 28 Wisconsin Grant 100% in 0.418 0.513 0.049 0.013 R +10 51272 29 Wisconsin Calumet 100% in 0.365 0.581 0.04 0.008 R +22 49502 30 Wisconsin Barron 100% in 0.35 0.604 0.032 0.008 R +25 45718 31 Wisconsin Monroe 100% in 0.36 0.585 0.036 0.012 R +22 45116 32 Wisconsin Dunn 100% in 0.41 0.521 0.05 0.013 R +11 44045 33 Wisconsin Douglas 100% in 0.511 0.435 0.033 0.015 D +8 43901 34 Wisconsin Polk 100% in 0.334 0.611 0.039 0.01 R +28 43698 35 Wisconsin Shawano 100% in 0.307 0.647 0.031 0.008 R +34 41697 36 Wisconsin Marinette 100% in 0.312 0.65 0.025 0.007 R +34 41488 37 Wisconsin Pierce 100% in 0.397 0.534 0.05 0.013 R +14 40859 38 Wisconsin Oconto 100% in 0.295 0.665 0.029 0.006 R +37 37483 39 Wisconsin Green 100% in 0.485 0.463 0.037 0.01 D +2 36971 40 Wisconsin Oneida 100% in 0.389 0.56 0.036 0.009 R +17 35754 41 Wisconsin Clark 100% in 0.312 0.638 0.033 0.008 R +33 34575 42 Wisconsin Vernon 100% in 0.447 0.493 0.031 0.021 R +5 30124 43 Wisconsin Trempealeau 100% in 0.416 0.543 0.027 0.008 R +13 29274 44 Wisconsin Lincoln 100% in 0.369 0.577 0.041 0.008 R +21 28566 45 Wisconsin Door 100% in 0.461 0.493 0.032 0.008 R +3 27789 46 Wisconsin Juneau 100% in 0.349 0.612 0.024 0.009 R +26 26607 47 Wisconsin Waushara 100% in 0.318 0.641 0.026 0.008 R +32 24409 48 Wisconsin Iowa 100% in 0.55 0.397 0.038 0.009 D +15 23754 49 Wisconsin Vilas 100% in 0.354 0.607 0.025 0.009 R +25 21368 50 Wisconsin Adams 100% in 0.374 0.592 0.02 0.008 R +22 20604 51 Wisconsin Taylor 100% in 0.255 0.7 0.03 0.007 R +45 20596 52 Wisconsin Kewaunee 100% in 0.337 0.616 0.032 0.007 R +28 20545 53 Wisconsin Jackson 100% in 0.415 0.533 0.033 0.011 R +12 20543 54 Wisconsin Langlade 100% in 0.323 0.638 0.028 0.007 R +31 19706 55 Wisconsin Green Lake 100% in 0.29 0.667 0.029 0.008 R +38 19001 56 Wisconsin Richland 100% in 0.449 0.505 0.028 0.013 R +6 17842 57 Wisconsin Lafayette 100% in 0.433 0.523 0.031 0.006 R +9 16847 58 Wisconsin Crawford 100% in 0.446 0.501 0.036 0.01 R +5 16525 59 Wisconsin Sawyer 100% in 0.366 0.595 0.024 0.01 R +23 16516 60 Wisconsin Ashland 100% in 0.522 0.433 0.023 0.018 D +9 16065 61 Wisconsin Washburn 100% in 0.362 0.597 0.029 0.008 R +23 15785 62 Wisconsin Burnett 100% in 0.338 0.621 0.026 0.008 R +28 15387 63 Wisconsin Marquette 100% in 0.359 0.603 0.024 0.006 R +24 15224 64 Wisconsin Bayfield 100% in 0.522 0.435 0.02 0.019 D +9 15064 65 Wisconsin Rusk 100% in 0.309 0.649 0.027 0.008 R +34 14468 66 Wisconsin Price 100% in 0.353 0.603 0.026 0.011 R +25 13888 67 Wisconsin Buffalo 100% in 0.366 0.585 0.031 0.011 R +22 13374 68 Wisconsin Forest 100% in 0.351 0.618 0.018 0.008 R +27 9198 69 Wisconsin Pepin 100% in 0.359 0.595 0.031 0.009 R +24 7390 70 Wisconsin Iron 100% in 0.366 0.601 0.021 0.009 R +23 5927 71 Wisconsin Florence 100% in 0.251 0.716 0.024 0.006 R +46 4473 72 Wisconsin Menominee 100% in 0.784 0.21 0 0.005 D +57 4382 73 Michigan Wayne 100% in 0.668 0.295 0.024 0.01 D +37 1790078 74 Michigan Oakland 100% in 0.517 0.436 0.035 0.01 D +8 1220798 75 Michigan Macomb 100% in 0.421 0.536 0.031 0.009 R +12 849344 76 Michigan Kent 100% in 0.452 0.483 0.046 0.013 R +3 615381 77 Michigan Genesee 100% in 0.524 0.429 0.032 0.011 D +9 418654 78 Michigan Washtenaw 100% in 0.684 0.269 0.031 0.013 D +42 351454 79 Michigan Ingham 100% in 0.609 0.332 0.04 0.014 D +28 282562 80 Michigan Ottawa 100% in 0.318 0.622 0.045 0.01 R +30 269795 81 Michigan Kalamazoo 100% in 0.533 0.405 0.045 0.013 D +13 254870 82 Michigan Saginaw 100% in 0.471 0.483 0.034 0.008 R +1 197727 83 Michigan Livingston 100% in 0.326 0.622 0.04 0.009 R +30 183264 84 Michigan Muskegon 100% in 0.475 0.466 0.041 0.012 D +1 171328 85 Michigan St. Clair 100% in 0.315 0.629 0.038 0.004 R +31 161008 86 Michigan Jackson 100% in 0.371 0.572 0.042 0.01 R +20 159927 87 Michigan Berrien 100% in 0.41 0.538 0.038 0.009 R +13 155992 88 Michigan Monroe 100% in 0.362 0.584 0.04 0.01 R +22 150851 89 Michigan Calhoun 100% in 0.411 0.536 0.039 0.011 R +12 135150 90 Michigan Allegan 100% in 0.325 0.613 0.045 0.011 R +29 112266 91 Michigan Eaton 100% in 0.441 0.496 0.047 0.011 R +6 108081 92 Michigan Bay 100% in 0.409 0.535 0.041 0.01 R +13 107074 93 Michigan Lenawee 100% in 0.365 0.576 0.045 0.01 R +21 99257 94 Michigan Grand Traverse 100% in 0.407 0.533 0.042 0.015 R +13 88981 95 Michigan Lapeer 100% in 0.282 0.666 0.038 0.009 R +38 88155 96 Michigan Midland 100% in 0.369 0.563 0.052 0.01 R +19 83620 97 Michigan Clinton 100% in 0.407 0.533 0.046 0.009 R +13 76479 98 Michigan Van Buren 100% in 0.399 0.539 0.045 0.013 R +14 75569 99 Michigan Isabella 100% in 0.45 0.487 0.043 0.016 R +4 70506 100 Michigan Shiawassee 100% in 0.369 0.565 0.049 0.011 R +20 69553 101 Michigan Marquette 100% in 0.488 0.445 0.044 0.018 D +4 67535 102 Michigan Ionia 100% in 0.311 0.621 0.051 0.011 R +31 63976 103 Michigan Montcalm 100% in 0.297 0.637 0.05 0.011 R +34 63046 104 Michigan St. Joseph 100% in 0.317 0.626 0.039 0.012 R +31 60998 105 Michigan Barry 100% in 0.301 0.634 0.047 0.011 R +33 59107 106 Michigan Tuscola 100% in 0.286 0.666 0.034 0.008 R +38 54795 107 Michigan Cass 100% in 0.312 0.612 0.062 0.009 R +30 52001 108 Michigan Newaygo 100% in 0.275 0.671 0.039 0.009 R +40 48126 109 Michigan Hillsdale 100% in 0.241 0.709 0.035 0.009 R +47 46282 110 Michigan Branch 100% in 0.287 0.669 0.032 0.008 R +38 43965 111 Michigan Mecosta 100% in 0.34 0.601 0.041 0.013 R +26 43226 112 Michigan Sanilac 100% in 0.253 0.699 0.034 0.009 R +45 42301 113 Michigan Gratiot 100% in 0.345 0.601 0.042 0.009 R +26 42057 114 Michigan Chippewa 100% in 0.348 0.591 0.038 0.016 R +24 38698 115 Michigan Delta 100% in 0.348 0.602 0.036 0.01 R +25 36841 116 Michigan Houghton 100% in 0.385 0.542 0.054 0.014 R +16 36739 117 Michigan Emmet 100% in 0.371 0.565 0.043 0.015 R +19 32922 118 Michigan Wexford 100% in 0.29 0.654 0.038 0.013 R +36 32699 119 Michigan Huron 100% in 0.289 0.671 0.03 0.007 R +38 32525 120 Michigan Clare 100% in 0.318 0.636 0.033 0.009 R +32 30786 121 Michigan Alpena 100% in 0.332 0.619 0.034 0.011 R +29 29242 122 Michigan Mason 100% in 0.36 0.58 0.041 0.013 R +22 28705 123 Michigan Oceana 100% in 0.334 0.607 0.041 0.01 R +27 26325 124 Michigan Dickinson 100% in 0.299 0.653 0.034 0.009 R +35 26097 125 Michigan Charlevoix 100% in 0.353 0.595 0.037 0.012 R +24 26038 126 Michigan Cheboygan 100% in 0.315 0.636 0.034 0.01 R +32 25821 127 Michigan Gladwin 100% in 0.304 0.651 0.032 0.007 R +35 25599 128 Michigan Iosco 100% in 0.325 0.625 0.034 0.011 R +30 25504 129 Michigan Manistee 100% in 0.395 0.549 0.036 0.016 R +15 24545 130 Michigan Roscommon 100% in 0.329 0.625 0.032 0.011 R +30 24141 131 Michigan Otsego 100% in 0.284 0.66 0.038 0.013 R +38 24126 132 Michigan Menominee 100% in 0.329 0.623 0.033 0.011 R +29 23838 133 Michigan Antrim 100% in 0.328 0.624 0.034 0.011 R +30 23368 134 Michigan Osceola 100% in 0.255 0.692 0.038 0.009 R +44 23327 135 Michigan Leelanau 100% in 0.459 0.491 0.035 0.013 R +3 21739 136 Michigan Ogemaw 100% in 0.292 0.657 0.034 0.011 R +37 21373 137 Michigan Benzie 100% in 0.402 0.542 0.037 0.015 R +14 17450 138 Michigan Kalkaska 100% in 0.255 0.697 0.032 0.013 R +44 17204 139 Michigan Gogebic 100% in 0.4 0.55 0.029 0.016 R +15 16042 140 Michigan Arenac 100% in 0.3 0.631 0.058 0.007 R +33 15564 141 Michigan Missaukee 100% in 0.214 0.738 0.033 0.01 R +52 14986 142 Michigan Crawford 100% in 0.309 0.637 0.039 0.01 R +33 13941 143 Michigan Presque Isle 100% in 0.333 0.622 0.033 0.007 R +29 13128 144 Michigan Iron 100% in 0.339 0.622 0.03 0.006 R +28 11615 145 Michigan Lake 100% in 0.364 0.593 0.029 0.009 R +23 11431 146 Michigan Mackinac 100% in 0.342 0.614 0.03 0.011 R +27 11080 147 Michigan Alcona 100% in 0.28 0.68 0.027 0.009 R +40 10657 148 Michigan Alger 100% in 0.368 0.573 0.039 0.015 R +20 9516 149 Michigan Montmorency 100% in 0.257 0.698 0.032 0.009 R +44 9506 150 Michigan Baraga 100% in 0.332 0.619 0.03 0.014 R +29 8740 151 Michigan Oscoda 100% in 0.257 0.7 0.034 0.004 R +44 8525 152 Michigan Schoolcraft 100% in 0.33 0.616 0.04 0.007 R +29 8345 153 Michigan Luce 100% in 0.264 0.682 0.04 0.011 R +42 6512 154 Michigan Ontonagon 100% in 0.344 0.605 0.037 0.008 R +26 6448 155 Michigan Keweenaw 100% in 0.369 0.57 0.043 0.014 R +20 2197 156 Pennsylvania Philadelphia 98.8% in 0.824 0.155 0.01 0.009 D +67 1546920 157 Pennsylvania Allegheny 100% in 0.564 0.4 0.025 0.008 D +16 1229172 158 Pennsylvania Montgomery 100% in 0.587 0.376 0.025 0.009 D +21 809372 159 Pennsylvania Bucks 100% in 0.484 0.478 0.025 0.009 D +1 626205 160 Pennsylvania Delaware 99.8% in 0.594 0.374 0.02 0.009 D +22 560775 161 Pennsylvania Lancaster 100% in 0.377 0.573 0.035 0.008 R +20 526839 162 Pennsylvania Chester 100% in 0.526 0.433 0.029 0.008 D +9 506422 163 Pennsylvania York 100% in 0.332 0.625 0.031 0.008 R +29 438052 164 Pennsylvania Berks 100% in 0.427 0.529 0.029 0.011 R +10 413016 165 Pennsylvania Westmoreland 100% in 0.327 0.641 0.024 0.005 R +31 362587 166 Pennsylvania Lehigh 100% in 0.504 0.459 0.025 0.009 D +4 354537 167 Pennsylvania Luzerne 100% in 0.388 0.584 0.017 0.009 R +20 320392 168 Pennsylvania Northampton 100% in 0.462 0.5 0.026 0.01 R +4 299225 169 Pennsylvania Erie 100% in 0.468 0.488 0.031 0.009 R +2 280132 170 Pennsylvania Dauphin 100% in 0.494 0.466 0.027 0.009 D +3 269946 171 Pennsylvania Cumberland 100% in 0.385 0.571 0.032 0.008 R +19 239420 172 Pennsylvania Lackawanna 100% in 0.502 0.468 0.019 0.009 D +3 214023 173 Pennsylvania Washington 100% in 0.355 0.608 0.026 0.007 R +25 208157 174 Pennsylvania Butler 100% in 0.292 0.667 0.031 0.006 R +38 185034 175 Pennsylvania Beaver 100% in 0.382 0.583 0.024 0.006 R +20 170124 176 Pennsylvania Monroe 100% in 0.484 0.481 0.021 0.011 D +0 168342 177 Pennsylvania Centre 100% in 0.485 0.466 0.035 0.01 D +2 156240 178 Pennsylvania Franklin 100% in 0.25 0.715 0.024 0.006 R +46 151517 179 Pennsylvania Schuylkill 100% in 0.267 0.7 0.022 0.007 R +43 147146 180 Pennsylvania Cambria 100% in 0.296 0.673 0.02 0.007 R +38 140835 181 Pennsylvania Fayette 100% in 0.334 0.644 0.016 0.004 R +31 135376 182 Pennsylvania Lebanon 100% in 0.303 0.659 0.026 0.007 R +36 135184 183 Pennsylvania Blair 100% in 0.252 0.715 0.023 0.006 R +46 126708 184 Pennsylvania Lycoming 100% in 0.257 0.705 0.026 0.008 R +45 116676 185 Pennsylvania Mercer 100% in 0.356 0.606 0.026 0.008 R +25 115739 186 Pennsylvania Adams 100% in 0.299 0.663 0.026 0.008 R +36 101566 187 Pennsylvania Northumberland 100% in 0.263 0.698 0.026 0.008 R +44 94294 188 Pennsylvania Lawrence 100% in 0.344 0.624 0.021 0.006 R +28 89859 189 Pennsylvania Indiana 100% in 0.304 0.661 0.024 0.006 R +36 88301 190 Pennsylvania Crawford 100% in 0.287 0.672 0.028 0.007 R +39 87801 191 Pennsylvania Clearfield 100% in 0.236 0.731 0.023 0.006 R +50 81472 192 Pennsylvania Somerset 100% in 0.206 0.765 0.019 0.005 R +56 77011 193 Pennsylvania Armstrong 100% in 0.225 0.745 0.022 0.004 R +52 68343 194 Pennsylvania Columbia 100% in 0.313 0.641 0.031 0.01 R +33 67089 195 Pennsylvania Carbon 100% in 0.31 0.652 0.024 0.009 R +34 64874 196 Pennsylvania Bradford 100% in 0.247 0.707 0.034 0.005 R +46 62510 197 Pennsylvania Pike 100% in 0.355 0.615 0.019 0.009 R +26 56883 198 Pennsylvania Venango 100% in 0.267 0.69 0.031 0.006 R +42 54265 199 Pennsylvania Wayne 100% in 0.286 0.683 0.019 0.009 R +40 51967 200 Pennsylvania Bedford 100% in 0.154 0.828 0.011 0.004 R +67 49332 201 Pennsylvania Mifflin 100% in 0.195 0.77 0.026 0.004 R +57 46705 202 Pennsylvania Huntingdon 100% in 0.23 0.737 0.021 0.005 R +51 45950 203 Pennsylvania Perry 100% in 0.219 0.738 0.029 0.008 R +52 45788 204 Pennsylvania Union 100% in 0.353 0.609 0.026 0.008 R +26 44955 205 Pennsylvania Jefferson 100% in 0.185 0.783 0.022 0.006 R +60 44935 206 Pennsylvania McKean 100% in 0.244 0.717 0.025 0.009 R +47 43024 207 Pennsylvania Susquehanna 100% in 0.264 0.692 0.029 0.01 R +43 42708 208 Pennsylvania Tioga 100% in 0.21 0.746 0.03 0.008 R +54 42358 209 Pennsylvania Warren 100% in 0.274 0.683 0.03 0.007 R +41 41218 210 Pennsylvania Snyder 100% in 0.244 0.717 0.028 0.007 R +47 39922 211 Pennsylvania Clinton 100% in 0.305 0.654 0.03 0.008 R +35 39611 212 Pennsylvania Clarion 100% in 0.243 0.718 0.027 0.007 R +47 39437 213 Pennsylvania Greene 100% in 0.278 0.695 0.018 0.005 R +42 38171 214 Pennsylvania Elk 100% in 0.263 0.7 0.027 0.006 R +44 31584 215 Pennsylvania Wyoming 100% in 0.288 0.674 0.025 0.009 R +39 28229 216 Pennsylvania Juniata 100% in 0.174 0.792 0.019 0.007 R +62 24793 217 Pennsylvania Montour 100% in 0.334 0.618 0.034 0.008 R +28 18475 218 Pennsylvania Potter 100% in 0.167 0.803 0.021 0.004 R +64 17451 219 Pennsylvania Fulton 100% in 0.134 0.842 0.014 0.005 R +71 14747 220 Pennsylvania Forest 100% in 0.261 0.701 0.025 0.008 R +44 7649 221 Pennsylvania Sullivan 100% in 0.239 0.732 0.021 0.004 R +49 6400 222 Pennsylvania Cameron 100% in 0.232 0.739 0.025 0.002 R +51 4939

See also

• United States presidential election, 2012